Frugal and Fi(re)nancial Digest | Mar 2021 Newsletter
In this article
The Stock to Look Out For
Electricity Retailer Comparison - TasNetworks
Cheapest Bill - Non-green Plans
Cheapest Bill - Green Plans
Cheapest Bill - GreenPower Plans
Heat Map for All Usages - Non-green Plans
Cheapest Interest Rates By Connective (Largest National Aggregator)
Did you know?
Upcoming events that may impact the market
Global equities rallied over the month to be up more than 2.5% and up more than 70% from the low of Mar 2020. Despite the ongoing emergence of new covid 19 variance, it appears the numerous vaccines have slowed the surge. This in combination with a lot of the central banks commitment to maintaining their support to global markets and nearly 80% of companies earning more than expected have contributed to the result.
The above have contributed certainly to the US market with the Dow Jones up 3.17%, S&P500 picking up 2.61% and the Nasdaq adding 0.93%. Unsurprisingly Communication Services and Information Technology were the main sectors that beat expectations whereas real estate, utilities and energy did not. The labour market is still weak although optimistic due to the falling covid 19 cases and better vaccine distribution. Retail sales jumped 5.9% due to the ~USD$600 billion stimulus. Manufacturing PMI and service PMIs improved 58.5 and 58.9 respectively - a decent outlook. The big news of the month of course was the 10 and 30 year bond yields closing February at 1.46% and 2.11% respectively. It is highly improbable this was due to accelerating inflation. I believe this could be due to optimism regarding economic growth due the vaccine distribution, Feds asset purchases continuation and the imminent approval of Biden's Rescue Plan (~USD$1.9 trillion) translating to 13% of GDP.
Europe ex UK was up 2.6% for the month with France +5.63%, Germany +2.63%, and UK +1.19% the main drivers. This is despite the delays in the roll out of the vaccine although the EC President has promised that 70% of the adult population will be vaccinated by the summer. Of interest is the the Recovery and Resilency Plan being given the go-ahead which may attract investors after a period of outflows. There is still uncertainties on the outlook though. Manufacturing PMI improved to 57.7 whilst service sector is still stubbornly weak at 44.7. UK hope to achieve full vaccination of the adult population by July and gradual reopening will begin in March, with schools to kick things off. Manufacturing PMI and service index is up to 54.9 and 49.7 so sentiments are improving.
Emerging markets modestly up 0.8% for the month with Japan +4.71%, India +6.8% and Indonesia +6.47% performing the strongest.
Of note, commodity +6.5%, small cap +5%, global REIT 4.1% outperformed global equities for the month. Higher commodity prices contributed to the higher commodity returns.
The Stock To Look Out For
Vanguard Australian Shares Index ETF (ASX: VAS)
VAS has been on a steady rise for over a decade now. And apart from a sudden dip that occurred late in February and lasted till mid-March in FY2020, the uptrend climb has been steady. In fact, the stock is close to reaching its record high ($90.56) once more. You may jump on the stock without proper analysis, and you may come home with some profit in your pocket. But we don’t recommend that because it is risky to not know enough about a stock before jumping on it. So, here’s a little technical analysis to give you an overview of the stock.
Apart from long-term ascension, it’s quite clear on the weekly chart that VAS has respected a steady uptrend support zone since during its decade-long climb. Only once in all that time has it slightly broken through this support zone. And it has recovered above the reliable support zone since then.
Similarly, the stock has respected an ascending resistance zone for about half a decade. But unlike the support trendline below it, it has never been breached. Another notable trendline is the minor support trendline that has guided the stock back into the major support zone from the steep fall about a year ago.
But enough about the lines.
How Do You Trade the VAS this March?
The fact that the price is currently close to the resistance zone makes buying quite tricky. If you buy now, look to take your profit at the resistance level. But note that you may get limited returns, assuming the stock does not make a U-turn from where it is at the moment. However, the presence of the minor support trendline offers opportunities to go long, especially since the price is right on the line.
Here’s what we recommend overall. Wait till the price breaks out of the support/resistance zone to the upside before you buy. If you’re taking your profit off the table, do it at the major resistance zone. But if the price breaks below the current support line where it finds itself, get ready to sell.
Entry Level: Buy at $87.21. But if the price breaks out below the minor resistance level, steer clear of the stock.
Domino's Pizza Enterprises Limited (ASX: DMP)
Domino's Pizza Enterprises Limited is one of those growth stocks you want to buy and hold long term. Since reaching its record peak in February, it has pulled back by about 25% and now looks ready to resume its ascension to the top.
One key factor that has been responsible for the steady progress that the stock has enjoyed is the company’s plans of expansion. Domino’s plans to double the number of its stores from 2800 to 5500 across Japan, Europe, and ANZ markets in the coming years. And there is nothing to say that the company would not expand into new markets, making its stocks even more enticing.
What makes this expansion plan seem much more feasible to us is the recent remarkable financial performance of the company. From July to December last year, the company reported an increase of $260.8 million in its global food sales from the previous six months. This increase was due to the company’s organic opening of just 131 new stores.
Overall, the DMP stock is ripe for buying on the fundamentals. The company has all the markers of growth. Goldman Sachs notably believes in this stock, as its analysts have placed a price target of $112.60 on the stocks. That's about a 30% increase from where the stock price currently is.
On the weekly timeframe, the stock is bounded below and above by ascending support and resistance zones, with price sitting right on top of the support zone. The other three times price rested on this support zone, it bounced back up. And there’s nothing to suggest that it wouldn't do the same this time around.
The current price level where the stock finds itself coincides with a support and resistance zone that formed sometime in August, last year. If price safely breaks out of this zone, look to buy and hold.
Entry Level: Wait till the price breaks out of the support/resistance zone before you buy. Buy at $87.60.
How I can save you money this month
Electricity Retailer Comparison - TasNetworks
I've done this very quickly to encourage people to check their electricity bill because there are always better valued options. I'm using flat tariff and 5000kWh/year as my assumption as this is considered the average in this area. If you want to check out the comparison for your area, usage and tariff type please click here.
Please note that Vic (5 network areas), WA, Ergon (network) and Tassie have not been added yet.
The rankings will change depending on your network area, actual usage, usage profile and tariff type.
Your energy bills are generally the top 3 or so expense you're likely to be paying so please don't hesitate in giving your current retailer the boot. It's easy and most sign-up takes just a few minutes. The only cost is generally the final read which can vary between $12 in Ausgrid to like $90 in ACT. Check with your current retailer before you churn.
The Heat Map - Energy Flat Tariff
I've built a heat map to demonstrate that just because an Energy Retailer is cheap for your friends, it doesn't mean it will always be the cheapest for you.
This is where the Retailer Comparison Tool comes in to calculate your specific network, tariff type and usage.
Flat + CL1
Flat + UC
Red - Most Expensive
Yellow - In the middle
Green - Cheapest
Another month, another insane month of growth.
Sydney and Hobart leading the month (2.5%) with Melbourne not far behind (2.5%).
In fact it is officially more expensive to buy a home in Sydney than in previous years. Growth is said to be a combination of historically low interest rates, responsible lending laws being loosened, the certainty of longer fixed interest rates, higher savings rate due to travel restrictions, reduced housing supply and FOMO. A perfect storm.
Cheapest Interest Rates in the Market Offered By Connective (Largest National Loan Aggregator)
*Current as of 14/3/2020
*The rates are quoted based on a borrowing amount of $500k. Higher borrowings may attract greater discounts.
The rates were brought to you by Shanker Ramakrishnan, Director of SR Business & Finance Consulting Pty Ltd. Ramakrishnan is a qualified Economist holding Bachelor & Master Degrees in Economics. He is an accredited Finance Broker with the Finance Brokers Association of Australia (FBAA), and holds a Certificate IV in Financial Services, and a Diploma of Finance & Mortgage Broking Management. Ramakrishnan is an experienced & Successful Multi-Millionaire Investor across Residential Property, Commercial Property, and Self-Managed Super Fund Investments.
Contact Shanker Ramakrishnan at SR Business & Finance Consulting Pty Ltd if you want more details Email: email@example.com.
Notes: 1. The Interest Rates I have Quoted are sourced from the extensive Panel of Banks/Lenders we have on our Aggregator Panel at Connective who I use as my Licensee (we are the largest Aggregator nationally, and have as wide a range of Banks/Lenders of any Aggregator to choose from)
2. My Licensing allows me to represent the Banks/Lenders on our Panel, as I am Accredited with these Banks/Lenders, and they are also Accredited on our Panel
3. There would be Banks/Lenders in the market that are not represented on our Panel, and this is disclosed upfront to anyone we deal with by virtue of our Credit Guide which lists the Banks/Lenders we do have access to
4. I believe that it is possible there may be Banks/Lenders that offer Cheaper Rates (marginally better at best), I expect that some of the On-Line Lenders may do that, but our knowledge of them is peripheral only at best, and we do not deal in these, as well as not knowing their Credit Policies, Processes, and how they deal with clients - and on this basis we do not normally make too much comment about them
5. There are possibly some Comparison Websites around that may list some of the Banks/Lenders we do not have on our Panel
Did you know?
The A$47 trillion interest rate derivatives market of ASX is the largest in Asia and among the biggest in the world.
Upcoming events that may impact the market
Black - Medium Impact
Red - High Impact
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